Profitable Long Shot Bets

Nothing is more fun than finding a good longshot and betting it to win at the horse races only to cash a large ticket. It is exhilarating to watch a horse at long odds come flying down the stretch and to know that you were smart or lucky enough to bet on it. But horseracing is a tough game and even with good tips it is still hard to find longshots that really do have a chance to win.

Let's face it, the crowd at the races are not dummies, well okay there are a few challenged individuals in the crowd, but most of them have enough knowledge about racing to realize that some horses have no chance or very little chance of winning. But there are some good longshot bets on almost every racing program. The trick is knowing someone to give you some good tips or being able to spot a legitimate contender, regardless of the odds.

I can't give you any information on a specific horse, but I can give you a few tips that will help you to isolate longshots with a chance of winning. One of my golden rules for finding horses that win at big prices is to find a horse that has won in the past at the same distance and on the same surface and sometimes even at the same track, but is going off at long odds in today's race. Obviously there was a change in the horses physical or mental condition that made it go from being competitive at that level to being a non contender. So how can you tell if the problem is fixed?

First of all, look for changes. Most longshots win because whatever it was that made them perform poorly in the recent past has been changed or fixed. It only makes sense. That is the number one reason that horses reverse recent form and outperform the crowd's expectations of them. It is usually a seemingly minor thing that makes a dramatic difference. Though horses are flesh and blood and not machines, their equipment is quite mechanical and that is a good place to start. The addition of lasix or a tongue tie are two of the major changes that can make a huge difference. If you find a horse that has done it before and the trainer has made an equipment change, pay attention and look more closely.

After you've found a horse that has shown it can win under the present conditions and has had an equipment change, look for signs that the trainer and other people with inside information believe the horse will perform better today. Besides having the talent and skill to win races, good jockeys also have good agents who get them on live mounts. It works both ways, good jockeys get good mounts that win races and make the good jockey even more successful.

If you find a horse that has proven it can win, has had a recent equipment change and is now getting a switch to a better rider, you are onto a live horse. Now I am not saying a high profile jockey who also draws a lot of attention from the crowd and will also drive the odds down, but I am saying a jockey who wins enough racing to be in what I call the second tier of jockeys. The second tier is the group of jockeys who win 12-15 percent of their races and seem to fly below the crowd's radar. When a trainer knows that the horse is ready to win, they will often put a competent reinsman in the irons who will get the job done without driving the odds down.

The reason for this is that many stables supplement their purse winnings with mutuel money. It just makes sense that if they know they have a good chance and can get long odds they stand to make a nice profit and racing horses is an expensive business so they collect on their winners when they can. Use a good toteboard analyzing technique like the one in True Handicapping whenever you find a longshot that meets the above requirements and you will have your share of excitement as you watch your longshots come thundering down the stretch to the amazement of all but a few of the savvy bettors. That's a tip you can take to the bank.